How is the electricity demand forecast

1 initial situation

Major changes are imminent in Germany over the next few decades. On the one hand, the demographic change brings with it an aging society; on the other hand, the population will decrease by 2030. Among other things, this will lead to a sharp decline in the number of people in employment. In some areas these changes are particularly dramatic.

Another challenge is the change in electricity supply. The expansion of renewable energies and the associated reversal of the network flow have a major impact on the networks.
These two big changes lead to a redefinition of the care task. In this study, the changes are first quantified using a parameter approach. Then typical supply tasks and their changes are presented.

2 Management Summary

At community level, the demographic and energy industry development up to the year 2030 is described using a parameter approach. Parameters are, for example, the number of inhabitants, the demand for electricity and gas, the number of people in employment and the expansion of renewable energies such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind power. The demographic development was mainly described by Prognos AG, the expansion of renewable energies by the Research Center for Energy Industry (FfE) and the Institute for Agricultural Management at the University of Hohenheim. The expansion of renewable energies is based on the BMU lead study.

According to the forecasts of Prognos AG, it is assumed that the population will decrease slowly at the beginning and significantly from 2020 onwards. The electricity demand, on the other hand, will remain almost constant until 2020 and will then drop significantly. A downward trend is assumed for heat and gas requirements over the entire period.

In contrast to the energy demand forecast by Prognos AG, strong growth can be observed in electricity generation from renewable energies. According to forecasts by the FfE, almost 25 GW of PV and 29 GW of wind power (onshore) will be installed by 2030. With intensive repowering, the installed capacity for wind turbines (onshore) can also exceed 36 GW by 2030.

After all parameters have been determined, the municipalities are clustered based on suitable parameters. By clustering the municipalities, typical supply tasks are to be determined. The clustering does not take place according to fixed values, such as "more than 1,000 inhabitants per kmĀ²", but results from the frequency distributions of the parameters and from parameters derived from parameters.

There are five typical supply tasks:

  • Municipalities with a high commercial and industrial share
  • Municipalities with few renewable energies, electricity generation from renewable energies is mainly done with PV
  • Municipalities with few renewable energies, electricity generation from renewable energies takes place predominantly with wind power
  • Municipalities with a lot of renewable energies, electricity generation from renewable energies is mainly done with PV
  • Municipalities with a lot of renewable energies, electricity generation from renewable energies is mainly done with wind power

Each municipality is assigned a supply task for each year of the observation period (2007, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030). Typical developments are derived from the changes in membership of the supply tasks.

There are two main development trends up to the year 2030:

  • There are more communities with a high share of renewable energies.
  • In many communities, PV will be the dominant source of renewable electricity.

In communities with a high commercial and industrial share, the expansion of renewable energies is weaker.

Illustration 1:Change in electricity demand at community level by 2030 (in 2007 units)